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Backgammon - True Probabilities!

 
/2008-07-21/






When you read other articles about backgammon dice roll probabilities you will notice an approach of accepting "2+1" and "1+2" as two different possibilities! But I don't like this popular way of thinking within backgammon players, in my point of view these two results are very same. It's only a situation when one dice comes "1" and the other "2", 1 on left dice, 2 on right dice, or 1 on red dice, 2 on the blue one! But when you say the number to play loudly, it’s 2 and 1, that’s it!



Backgammon is not a game that you play with the left dice first and then with the right dice, one by one, separately; it's a game that you play by the result of two dices! So I consider them like values to play "1 and 2" or "3" which also mean two possibilities, but in a different way. This is important when you consider "5+4" as "5 and 4" or "9"; also double6 as "12" or "18" or "24"! Furthermore, in my way too, there are 36 possibilities as mentioned in major backgammon tutorials: 6 different doubles, 15 combinations, and 15 sums of 2 dices!









So when you are obliged to leave a blot (a single or weak checker) try to avoid positions attainable by 6, then 4, then 5 and 3. And prefer 7 to 8! Check the followings to find out why!



Double numbers: 6



Double 1 means 4 times 1; or 1, 2, 3, 4



Double 2 means 4 times 2; or 2, 4, 6, 8



Double 3 means 4 times 3; or 3, 6, 9, 12



Double 4 means 4 times 4; or 4, 8, 12, 16



Double 5 means 4 times 5; or 5, 10, 15, 20



Double 6 means 4 times 6; or 6, 12, 18, 24



Possible combinations: 30



1 + 2 = 1, 2, or 3



1 + 3 = 1, 3, or 4



1 + 4 = 1, 4, or 5



2 + 3 = 2, 3, or 5



1 + 5 = 1, 5, or 6



2 + 4 = 2, 4, or 6



1 + 6 = 1, 6, or 7



2 + 5 = 2, 5, or 7



3 + 4 = 3, 4, or 7



2 + 6 = 2, 6, or 8



3 + 5 = 3, 5, or 8



3 + 6 = 3, 6, or 9



4 + 5 = 4, 5, or 9



4 + 6 = 4, 6, or 10



5 + 6 = 5, 6, or 11



Probability of numbers that you may get in 100 rolls:



1 = 9 times



2 = 10 times



3 = 11 times



4 = 12 times



5 = 11 times



6 = 13 times



7 = 03 times



8 = 04 times



9 = 03 times



10 = 02 times



11 = 01 time



12 = 03 times



15 = 01 time



16 = 01 time



18 = 01 time



20 = 01 time



24 = 01 time



Percentage (in 100 rolls):



% 10.35 for "1"



% 11.49 for "2"



% 12.64 for "3"



% 13.79 for "4"



% 12.64 for "5"



% 14.94 for "6"



% 03.45 for "7"



% 04.60 for "8"



% 03.45 for "9"



% 02.30 for "10"



% 01.15 for "11"



% 03.45 for "12" and



% 01.15 for "15","16","18","20" and "24"





By: Ralf Guven



Article Directory: http://www.articledashboard.com





Ralf Guven is a founder partner of Vitalinfocenter.com since 2000 and an expert of Backgammon Game. To find out more tips, tricks, strategies and information on how to play better backgammon visit Backgammon Tips & Advice.



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